In the next 15 years, the UK population will reach 74 million, and net migration will add six million people. The projection has been made based on the Office for National Statistics data. According to the figures provided by ONS, net international migration is believed to be 315,000 per year from mid-2018 onwards.
On the other hand, ONS has stated that actual levels of future migrations and population can go higher or lower, and it will be affected by policy changes as well as the behaviour of migrants, which is unknown.
ONS projects that the population of the UK will grow from an estimated 67 million in mid-2021 to a level of 73.7 million by mid-2036. This means there will be an increase of 9.9 % or 6.6 million people.
In this same duration, it is expected that 10.8 million people will be born, 10.3 million will die, and 13.7 million will move to the UK for the long term. It also stated that in this period, 7.6 million people will emigrate.
James Robards, representing the ONS, acknowledged the potential for uncertainty in international migration estimates. This underscores how the future of migration hinges on both policy shifts and the evolving behavioural dynamics among migrants.
He defines that if the migration goes down, so does the future projections.
Robards adds that the estimates are being called projections and not forecasts because the uncertainty factor due to these differences is primary, which will affect the total size of the population conditionally.
The projected net migration of the global population is anticipated to decline in the coming year. Having peaked at around 670,000 in the year leading up to June 2023, it is forecasted to stabilise around 315,000 starting in 2028.
Former Home Secretary Suella Braverman criticised these projections as being "too high" in a statement shared on X, formerly Twitter.
The UK is anticipated to experience a population surge by 2036, reaching an estimated 74 million. However, it's important to note that this figure is a projection, not a definitive forecast, as it relies on ambiguous information. Therefore, the projection should be regarded as approximate. Additionally, the net migration of the international population is expected to decrease.
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